With a scientific attitude toward earthquake prediction
Category Adamant on May 21st, 2008
The face of sudden disaster, we still believe there should be a scientific approach to deal with earthquakes and earthquake prediction. Earthquake prediction is still a global scientific challenges, which is globally recognized research and academic community (Earthquake prediction is the Holy Grail of seismology seismology in earthquake prediction is the crown, Nature 437, 969-974 13 Oct 2005). In this regard there is a lot of research and documentary evidence to support this view, owners translated in 2008 in "Nature" (Nature) Review of research published (Review) in paragraph (Nature 451, 271-273 17 January 2008), for your reference:
With regard to academic point of view of earthquake prediction
Japan is earthquake-prone countries in 2006, Japan established a set of earthquake early warning systems. Owners translation of the official information from Japan Meteorological Agency, to introduce on the set of basic knowledge of alarm systems. It is worth emphasizing that, even this sophisticated alarm system is also only a few seconds before the earthquake, to tens of seconds to provide a report:
Japan's earthquake early warning systems
Finally, Fang Zhouzi transferred a blog article, in fact, the author calls The reason is simple, everyone thought about it, will know. So, do not believe rumors, do not pass rumor, but we need to spend a minute or two the time bar. Finally everyone can ask yourself, do I have to read a single word I would like to forward the text, do I have to personally point to forward me the link. These two points, a lot of rumors on the go too.
Earthquake prediction, the original case (switch to New Threads articles)
Authors: Xiao Li
http://www.xys-reader.org/blogs/fangzhouzi?p=9309
Today, listening to a fellow student of mine said that in 2006 it was published on the paper, predicted that the Wenchuan earthquake. Surprised and bewildered, I quickly recruited into the original reading, after reading the help but laugh. This trick is so simple and really a bit surprising.
Paper entitled "Method Based on Public-degree earthquake in Sichuan-Yunnan region trends in research," published in 2006, "Disaster study", the author is Long Xiaoxia, Yan-Jun-ping, SUN Hu, Zu-being. The first author is 23 years old at the time of the Travel and Tourism Master, graduated in 2007. However, according to the author of another paper data show that Miss Long Xiaoxia working in the Sian II. She is serving the estimated degree of secondary school teachers. This paper, but four, including a large number of charts, the actual number of words only about 2000 words, turned out to be a common outcome of the four authors.
At first glance, the author two years ago to make startling predictions, be called God-man. However, would like to know a few details of the game can be debunked.
Points 1, this prediction is not a little god. Long Xiaoxia predicted that an earthquake will occur in Sichuan-Yunnan region, this range is too great. According to her the data given in the paper, the entire 20th century, in the 1913 to 1996 a major earthquake in Sichuan-Yunnan region between 37 times, an average of 0.45 times each year. In other words, if she predicted that in any one year will be an earthquake in Sichuan-Yunnan region, then the correct probability was 45%.
Point two, she applied the method, but is "make up the numbers." Egyptians thousands of years ago predicted the solar eclipse in this way. A little mathematical knowledge of the people understand: As long as a sufficient number of parameters to set, any one set of data can "find" out of the laws, and can make any kind of predictions.
Point 3, her apparent contradictory projections. According to her approach, at least three years - 1990,1993 and 1998 - should a major earthquake. Why she did not mention the three years involved?
Point 4, the so-called "commensurable method" is no more than four arithmetic operations (Strictly speaking, the only use addition and subtraction). Her seriousness of the some of the data into triples or four-tuple increase and reduction, in fact, the only one: in those years can be Couchu four arithmetic series (provided that the original data modification).
Point 5, this method in the West known as the "numerology" is the originator of Pythagoras, and still is widely used in astrology. Said she was "pseudo-science" would not be very appropriate - should be called the pre-science.
Interestingly, this paper turned out to be the Ministry of Education philosophy and social sciences research results of major research projects. According to Institute for Tourism Studies, Shaanxi Normal University, published data, the subject name of "Western economic development and ecological restoration research", the host Yan Jun-ping (in this paper's second author), capital 300,000. The research project has anything to do with earthquakes? Can see that the Ministry of Education of the Road, a few were bad people, to wipe out 300,000.